🤖 ASI Progress Dashboard ≈ Singularity Tracker
Track humanity's progress towards Artificial Super-Intelligence (ASI) through key metrics, milestones, and predictions. This dashboard provides real-time updates on the advancement of AI technologies and their convergence towards super-human capabilities. For additional information, see the ARC-AGI leaderboard.
Time Until Estimated ASI Emergence
Calculating...
Computing Power
3.2 EFLOPS
+125% YoY
Available computing capacity for AI training
Model Complexity
1.75T Parameters
+85% YoY
Largest AI model parameter count
Task Performance
66.7%
+15% YoY
Average benchmark score
AI Progress Metrics Over Time
Key AI Milestones
- 1997: Deep Blue beats Chess Grandmaster Garry Kasparov
- 2016: AlphaGo beats Go Grandmaster Lee Sedol
- 2017: Transformer Architecture
- 2020: OpenAI GPT-3 Release
- 2022: Initial ChatGPT Release using GPT-3.5
- 2023: GPT-4 Release
- 2024: GPT-4o Multimodal Release
- 2025: o3 (High) model scores 60.8% on the ARC-AGI benchmark
- 2025: DeepSeek r1 demonstrates efficiency gains
- 2025: Grok 4 (Thinking) achieves 66.7% on the ARC-AGI benchmark
AI Development Predictions
- 2025: Human-level reasoning in specialized domains
Confidence: 95% | Impact: High
- 2026: Autonomous AI agents in real-world environments
Confidence: 85% | Impact: Very High
- 2027: General problem-solving at human level
Confidence: 75% | Impact: Critical
- 2028: Self-improving AI systems emerge
Confidence: 70% | Impact: Transformative
- 2029: Artificial General Intelligence
Confidence: 65% | Impact: Revolutionary
- 2030: Artificial Super-Intelligence
Confidence: 59% | Impact: Potentially Apocalyptic
Current ASI Emergence / Singularity Probability
About the Metrics: This dashboard uses a combination of real-world data and predictive models to track progress towards ASI. The metrics include computing power available for AI training, model complexity measured in parameters, and performance on standardized AI benchmarks.